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The S&P 500 is at risk of plunging 44% to around a four-year low, Paul Dietrich said. The top strategist explained that selling stocks well before they crash can yield outsized returns. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe stock market may be headed for a 44% crash — and getting out early could pay off, Paul Dietrich said. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Paul Dietrich, Dietrich, , Riley Wealth Organizations: Service, Business
The bond market's famous recession gauge has been flashing for 18 months. A downturn could be delayed for months after the yield curve first inverts, Paul Dietrich said. Dietrich pointed to the inverted Treasury yield curve, a highly accurate recession gauge that flashes when the yield on the 2-year US Treasury surpasses the 10-year Treasury. In the past, recessions have taken up to 28 months to officially start after being signaled by the yield curve and leading economic indicators, he noted. Dietrich is among the more bearish forecasters on Wall Street, having warned investors of an impending recession for months.
Persons: Paul Dietrich, , Riley Wealth's, Dietrich, Stocks Organizations: Service, Treasury
Stock futures are trading near the flatline overnight as the S&P 500 approached its best first-quarter performance in five years. S&P 500 futures inched lower by 0.08%, while Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.1%. Stocks rallied across the board on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.86% to close at a record high. The major averages are tracking for their second consecutive winning quarter and fifth straight winning month. For the quarter, the S&P 500 is up about 10%.
Persons: Stocks, You've, you've, Hogan, Riley, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewWarren Buffett's favorite market gauge has surged to a two-year high of 184%, signaling stocks are overvalued and could suffer a devastating crash. Investors use it to compare the overall value of the stock market to the size of the national economy. It also relies on GDP, which excludes overseas income, whereas US stocks price in the value of companies' domestic and international operations. AdvertisementYet the metric's return to the lofty levels that preceded past market disasters is a clear red flag for some experts.
Persons: , Warren, Buffett, yardstick, Buffett's yardstick, John Hussman, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth Organizations: Service, Business, Wilshire Indexes, Wilshire, Nvidia, Microsoft, Federal, Nasdaq, Hussman Investment Trust Locations: Wilshire, Berkshire
Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
Here's a roundup of recent recession warnings from six experts:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEOAdvertisementThere's a long history of investors being caught off guard by sudden downturns, Dimon told CNBC this week. AdvertisementSteve Hanke, Johns Hopkins professorThe US economy is headed for a recession if history is any indication, Hanke told Business Insider this week. AdvertisementPaul Dietrich, B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist"We're still on the path to recession," Dietrich told Business Insider in a recent interview. AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO"I think recession is closer than most people think," Gundlach said in a recent YouTube video.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, There's, Dimon, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, We're, Dietrich, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, JPMorgan, CNBC, UBS, DoubleLine Locations: American, Russia, Ukraine, Israel
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking at why side hustles are all the rage these days . Call it “overemployed light,” but working side jobs for some extra income is en vogue, especially for young people. For as much energy as they put into eliciting change, they also view their job as… just a job.
Persons: , I've, Andrew Hollenhorst, we’re, hasn’t, Gen Zer, Jackie Mitchell, Mitchell, Business Insider’s Madison Hoff, Michell isn’t, Zers, don’t, Z, Eve Upton, Clark, Keida Dervishi, Jeremy Grantham, ” Grantham, Riley Wealth's Paul Dietrich, Bryan Erickson, Craig Hastings, Isabel Fernandez Pujol, Oppenheimer, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Citi, Boston Globe, Labor, Getty, Netflix, Walmart Locations: California, TikTok, New York, London
After turbocharging late 2023's stock market rally, some of the " Magnificent 7 " technology darlings are looking less magnificent this year. Shares of Meta and Nvidia are leading the Magnificent 7 for the year, with both stocks jumping roughly 34% each. The rest of the Magnificent 7 stocks, however, have received anywhere from 70% to 85% buy rating consensus. While the other five are forecast to see at least double-digit earnings growth estimates, analysts predict Apple's earnings growth to stay relatively unchanged. On the other hand, consensus estimates call for Tesla earnings to fall by 20%.
Persons: turbocharging, Tesla, Art Hogan, Hogan, Baird, Elon Musk's, Ben Kallo, Tim Long, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Charles Schwab, Kevin Gordon, Gordon, Ed Yardeni, isn't, Yardeni, Russell, Fred Imbert Organizations: Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Wall Street, Riley Wealth Management, CNBC, BYD, Barclays, Blips, Yardeni Research, titans Locations: Delaware, China
On the other hand, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hovered near the flatline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.97%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite respectively gained 1.25% and 1.3%. The action follows a Wednesday sell-off that started after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut at the March meeting was unlikely. Economists polled by Dow Jones are calling for payrolls to have grown by 185,000 positions, and for the unemployment rate to inch higher to 3.8%. That compares to December's blowout of 216,000 positions added and an unemployment rate of 3.7%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Art Hogan, It's, it's, Hogan, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Meta, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Dow Jones, Federal, Riley Wealth Management, CNBC, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Myers Squibb Locations: China, mull, Bristol, Cigna
Dollar hovers near 7-week high as Fed cut bets shift to May
  + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
In this photo illustration, a person seen holding a 100 US dollar bill in his hand. The dollar has been buoyed by U.S. economic data suggesting the Fed can wait longer before cutting interest rates. Powell gave the currency another push overnight by calling a cut in March "not the base case." Traders are now pricing in a 38% probability the Fed will cut rates in March, down from 59% ahead of the Fed decision. Against Japan's currency, the dollar drifted 0.06% lower to 146.81 yen , adding to Wednesday's 0.47% decline.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Hogan, Riley, Sean Callow Organizations: Federal, Treasury, U.S, New, Bancorp, Fed, Traders, New York Community Bancorp, Investors, UST, Westpac, U.S . Locations: U.S, New York
This all-time high confirms the bull market that started in October 2022 when the broad index hit a low of 3,577.03. While the conventional wisdom holds a bull market is any gain greater than 20%, most market observers wait for a new high to be made before calling it an official bull market. The median length of a bull run is just north of 1,500 days. Performance in a bull market can vary. The longest bull run lasted between 2009 and 2020 — nearly 4,000 calendar days — with an overall gain of more than 400%.
Persons: Hogan Organizations: CFRA Research, Bull, Federal Reserve, Riley Wealth Management, Investment
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. However, minutes from the latest Fed meeting on Tuesday showing policymakers' cautious approach towards monetary policy weighed on optimism around the prospects of a rate cut early next year. The three headwinds were higher energy prices, higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar and for the last three weeks, all of those headwinds now become tailwinds," said Hogan. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.31-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.24-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 34 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 54 new highs and 40 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Art Hogan, Hogan, Sam Altman, Caterpillar, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Deere, Co, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Data, Riley, Traders, Nvidia, Wall, U.S, Investors, OpenAI, Microsoft, Dow Jones, Deere & Co, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China
Nov 6 (Reuters) - Wall Street brokerages largely initiated Birkenstock (BIRK.N) with their top ratings, pointing to a likely boost from the German luxury sandal maker's recent investments to increase capacity, expansion into newer styles and brand loyalty. Birkenstock's shares dropped to as low as $35.83 in the days after listing on Oct. 11 and has traded below the IPO price of $46 apiece. Citigroup was among the most bullish, with a price target of $52, a more than 26% jump from the last close. Telsey Advisory Group analysts said Birkenstock has further avenue to expand into footwear categories such as orthopedics and professional, outdoor and active, kids, home, and sneakers. Morgan Stanley assigned a price target of $41 and an "equal-weight" rating, saying most catalysts were already priced in.
Persons: Birkenstock's, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, Birkenstock, Bernard Arnault, Lorraine Hutchinson, Morgan Stanley, Hogan, Riley, Reshma Rockie George, Susan Mathew, Savyata Mishra, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel, Sriraj Organizations: Arm Holdings, Citigroup, Telsey Advisory, U.S ., Global, Thomson Locations: U.S, French, Bengaluru
Three-Stock Lunch: McDonald's, Eli Lilly and Airbnb
  + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThree-Stock Lunch: McDonald's, Eli Lilly and AirbnbArt Hogan, Riley Wealth Management chief market strategist, joins ‘Power Lunch’ to discuss three stocks: McDonald's, Eli Lilly and Airbnb.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Art Hogan, Riley, Airbnb Organizations: Riley Wealth Management
The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. Retail sales data, due out on Tuesday, may have to walk a tightrope to satisfy investors. A survey on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated in October, with households expecting higher inflation over the next year. Todd, of Greenwood Capital, is focused on insight from companies about the cumulative effect of "higher inflation and higher rates on the consumer." “The conclusions from the consumer next week, I think, is going to be bad news is good news."
Persons: Carlo Allegri, that’s, Hogan, , Walter Todd, Todd, Jack Ablin, Ablin, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Procter & Gamble, Netflix, Federal, Riley, , Reuters, University of Michigan, Major, Greenwood Capital, Bank of America, America Airlines Group, Treasury, Cresset, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Israel, Major U.S
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. The Labor Department report showed U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in September versus estimates of a 0.3% rise, according to economists polled by Reuters. Prices rose to 3.7% against estimates of 3.6% in the 12 months through September. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in line with estimates. Reuters GraphicsAnother set of data showed jobless claims rose 209,000 for the week ended Oct. 7, lower than an estimated 210,000 rise.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Israel, Hogan, Riley, Susan Collins, Atlanta's Raphael Bostic, Kan, advancers, Shashwat Chauhan, Ankika Biswas, Johann M Cherian, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Reuters, CPI, Traders, Federal, Boston, Public, Dow Jones, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, Bengaluru
JPMorgan Chase Bank is seen in New York City, U.S., March 21, 2023. In the first 10 days of this month, the $1.46 billion Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB.O) saw net outflows of $336.18 million, while the $2.49 billion SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF saw net outflows of $19.58 million. Overall, the Invesco fund and the SPDR fund posted net inflows of $381.16 million and $565.15 million so far this year. The prices of the ETFs are down 23% and 28.4%, respectively, as bank stocks fell sharply earlier this year following the collapse of California-based Silicon Valley Bank and two other U.S. lenders. "Although, our equity research team indicates that selling may have pushed prices down too far and created a buying opportunity."
Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Hogan, Riley, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Bryan Armour, Bansari Mayur, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: JPMorgan Chase Bank, REUTERS, Exchange, KBW Bank, Regional Banking, Valley Bank, U.S, Federal, JPMorgan, Citigroup, North America, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, California, Bengaluru
"At the end of the day, tying that to what it means for the S & P 500 in the fourth quarter, that's a much more difficult exercise." Indeed, both the Dow and the S & P 500 moved solidly into positive territory Monday afternoon, and the tech-focused Nasdaq was higher as well. Not surprisingly, energy stocks on the S & P 500 jumped 3.7%, while industrials and discretionary stocks also posted solid gains. Finally, while the market often has knee-jerk reactions to geopolitical events, they rarely last unless there are other complicating factors. "When you look back at geopolitical issues, the market looks past them," said Lindsey Bell, chief market strategist at 248 Ventures.
Persons: Hogan, that's, Lindsey Bell, Bell Organizations: Riley Wealth Management, Dow, Federal Reserve, Columbus Day, Ventures, Reserve Locations: Israel, that's
Markets are in lock step with yields, says B. Riley's Art Hogan
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets are in lock step with yields, says B. Riley's Art HoganArt Hogan, B. Riley Wealth Management, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss yields soaring to levels not seen since 1987.
Persons: Hogan Art Hogan Organizations: Riley Wealth Management
Sept 21 (Reuters) - Media mogul Rupert Murdoch, 92, has stepped down as the chairman of Fox Corp (FOXA.O) and News Corp (NWSA.O), ending a more than seven-decade career in which he created an empire spanning from Australia to the United States. His son, Lachlan Murdoch, will become the chairman of News Corp and continue as the chair and CEO of Fox, the companies said on Thursday. The transition cements Lachlan's role as the leader of the media empire, putting to rest questions of succession within the Murdoch family. His son Lachlan Murdoch is seasoned and capable of running the business, but of course there's no replacement for someone like the chairman, Rupert Murdoch, who founded the company and built it over decades." "The media world is unrecognisable from the one he stepped into seventy years ago and the decision to scrap plans to reunite his empire must have smarted."
Persons: Rupert Murdoch, Lachlan Murdoch, Murdoch, BRIAN WIESER, Lachlan, MICHAEL ASHLEY SCHULMAN, Smartmatic, Rupert Murdoch's, JASON BENOWITZ, I'm, DANNI HEWSON, AJ BELL, he's, Mary Berry, he'll, RILEY, THOMAS HAYES, Wise, MATTHEW TUTTLE, ED MOYA, Aditya Soni, Samrhitha, Mayur, Ananya Mariam Rajesh, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Media, Fox Corp, News Corp, Fox, MADISON, WALL'S, Dominion, HOGAN, TUTTLE, MSNBC, Thomson Locations: Australia, United States, Bengaluru
The IPO gave Instacart a valuation of nearly $9.9 billion, a fraction of the $39 billion it was worth in 2021, the company's last funding round. Reuters GraphicsSeveral startups' valuations have shrunk since 2022 as inflation, geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hikes soured the economic climate. But a lukewarm reception to Neumora Therapeutics' (NMRA.O) IPO last week hinted at limited investor enthusiasm for new listings. Arm soared on its first day of trading but has dropped every day since then. Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan are the lead underwriters for Instacart's IPO.
Persons: Eric Cohn, Cheney Orr, Hogan, Riley, Instacart, Apoorva Mehta, Fidji Simo, Goldman Sachs, J.P, Morgan, Niket, Noel Randewich, Devika Syamnath, Anil D'Silva, Nick Zieminski, Richard Chang Organizations: Safeway, REUTERS, Nasdaq, SoftBank's Arm, San, Maplebear Inc, Reuters, Federal, Investors, Neumora Therapeutics, Instacart's, Thomson Locations: Tucson , Arizona, U.S, San Francisco, Bengaluru, Oakland , California
Spectrum is the second largest U.S. cable provider, serving 14.7 million homes across large markets such as New York and Los Angeles. Shares of Disney dropped 2.65% to a three-year low while Charter lost 3.4%. Warner Brothers Discovery Inc (WBD.O) fell 10%, Fox Corp (FOXA.O) shed 6%, Paramount Global (PARA.O) dropped 8%, while Comcast Corp (CMCSA.O), the largest U.S. cable provider, was down nearly 3%. Charter said Disney rejected its proposal for a new distribution deal that takes into account the rise of competing low-cost streaming services, which has fueled cord-cutting among its customers. The cable provider said it pays Disney $2.2 billion in annual programming costs, excluding advertising.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Hogan, Disney, Dennis Dick, Chibuike Oguh, Amruta Khandeka, Khushi Singh, Michelle Price, Richard Chang Organizations: Walt Disney Company, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fox Corp, Warner Brothers Discovery Inc, Disney, Charter Communications, ESPN, ABC, Hollywood, Charter, Paramount Global, Comcast Corp, U.S, Riley, Triple D, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Los Angeles, Hollywood, Bengaluru
A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), showed the number of job openings stood at 8.827 million in July, falling for the third straight month and signaling easing labor market pressures. The S&P 500 communication services sector (.SPLRCL) rose 2.6%, while consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and technology (.SPLRCT) stocks gained 1.9% each. The non-farm payrolls report on Friday will offer investors more clarity about the state of the labor market. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Elliott, Hogan, Jerome Powell's, drugmaker, decliners, Shristi Achar, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, Labor, Conference Board, Riley, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Elliott Investment Management, Dow Jones, Verizon, Citi, PDD Holdings, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York, United States, Bengaluru
US stocks rose higher as traders waited for Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Last year, stocks plunged after Powell warned markets of "more pain" ahead. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyAdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks rose Friday ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Powell's speech at the same event last year sent stocks plummeting as he reiterated the central bank's committement to fighting inflation through interest rate hikes. At last year's event, stocks plunged after Powell warned markets of "more pain" ahead, as the Fed would continue to stay hawkish on inflation.
Persons: Jackson, Powell, Jerome Powell's, Riley, Art Hogan Organizations: Investors, Service, Federal, Jackson, Fed, Riley Wealth, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon
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